On last Sunday's "Meet the Press", PA Governor Ed Rendell rehashed the Clinton camp's ridiculous argument that despite the fact that Obama has won more contests, votes, and pledged delegates, Clinton somehow deserves the nomination because she won the "big states"...
I'm not giving that ludicrous line of thinking a shred of credibility, but for the sake of argument, lets take a look at a factor the Clinton camp conveniently ignores... Vote margins...
First up, Clinton's wins. All numbers are from CNN, except where otherwise noted:
Arizona: 51-42, 9 point difference
*California: 52-43, 9 point difference
*New Hampshire: 39-37, 2 point difference
New Mexico: 49-48, 1 point difference
Oklahoma: 55-31, 24 point difference
*Texas:
Primary: 65-61, 4 point difference
Caucus: Obama wins 56-44 (source Daily KOS) 12 point difference
Delegates: Obama 98, Clinton 95
I would argue that these numbers give Obama the win in Texas, but I'll go with the "conventional wisdom" and give it to Clinton.
Arkansas: 70-26, 44 point difference
*Massachusetts: 56-41, 15 point difference
Nevada: 51-45, 6 point difference
Delegates: Obama 13-Clinton 12
*New Jersey: 54-44, 10 point difference
*New York: 57-40, 17 point difference
*Ohio: 71-59, 12 point difference
Rhode Island: 58-40, 18 point difference
Tennessee: 54-41, 13 point difference
Total number of contests won: 14
Total number of contests won by more than 10 points: 7
Total number of contests won by more than 20 points: 2
Total number of contests won by less than 10 points: 6
Total "big states" won by more than 10 points: 3
Total "big states" won by 10 points or less: 4
Now for Obama's wins:
Alabama: 56-42 (primary), 14 point difference
Connecticut: 51-47 (primary), 4 point difference
D.C.: 75-24 (Primary), 51 point difference
Georgia: 67-31 (primary), 36 point difference
Idaho: 79-17, 62 point difference
Iowa: 38-29, 9 point difference
Louisiana: 57-36 (primary), 21 point difference
Maryland: 60-37 (primary), 23 point difference
Nebraska: 68-32, 36 point difference
North Dakota: 61-37, 24 point difference
South Carolina: 55-27 (primary), 28 point difference
Utah: 57-39 (primary), 18 point difference
Virginia: 64-35 (primary), 29 point difference
Wisconsin: 58-41 (primary), 17 point difference
Alaska: 75-25, 50 point difference
Colorado: 67-32, 35 point difference
Delaware: 53-43 (primary), 10 point difference
Hawaii: 76-24, 52 point difference
Illinois: 65-33 (primary), 32 point difference
Kansas: 74-26, 48 point difference
Maine: 59-40, 19 point difference
Minnesota: 66-32, 34 point difference
Missouri: 49-48 (primary), 1 point difference
Vermont: 59-39 (primary), 20 point difference
Washington: 68-31, 37 point difference
Wyoming: 61-38, 23 point difference
U.S. Virgin Islands: 90-8 (Primary) Source: politico, 82 point difference
U.S. Democrats abroad: 65-32 (Primary) Source: Huffington Post, 33 point difference
Total number of contests won: 29
Total number of contests won by more than 10 points: 23
Total number of contests won by more than 20 points: 20
Total number of primaries won: 16
Total number of primaries won by more than 10 points: 13
Total number of primaries won by more than 20 points: 9
Total number of contests won by less than 10 points: 3
What do we make of this?...
Obama has won more contests by landslide margins (higher than 20 points) than Clinton's total contests.
Of those, 9 were primaries (I mention this because Clinton's camp tries to claim that Obama only gets big wins in caucuses).
In fact, Obama has won more primaries than Clinton's total contests.
Most of Clinton's "big state" wins were by very close (lower than 10 points) margins, indicating that there was essentially a split decision among democrats there.
One of those "big states" (Texas) is technically in Obama's column.
Twice as many of Clinton's wins were by very narrow (lower than 10 points) margins as Obama's.
So much for a "big state" argument.
The people have spoken.
Obama is the clear winner.
My friend Elf Sternberg (a conservative Republican who supports Obama, incidentally) made the point that Clinton has to win 63% of every contest from here on in order to beat Obama's pledged delegate lead.
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