Thursday, April 24, 2008

Clinton = Huckabee

If it seems that I've been a bit behind on my posting here, it's because, for all intents and purposes, the primaries are over.
Barack Obama has effectively won the nomination.

Every pundit, analyst, and blogger who has done the math (I'm not even going to bother including links because there are simply too many of them) all come up with the same reality:

Hillary. Can't. Win.

It has now gone from an improbability to a mathematical impossibility for her to surpass Obama in pledged delegates, popular vote, or states won.
Even if she were to include Florida.

As Keith Olbermann pointed out on Countdown last night...

even if she included Michigan as well (where Obama wasn't even on the ballot), she would only be ahead in the popular vote by about 100,000 votes.
But, as Keith also (brilliantly) noted, the only way to make Michigan remotely fair would be to give Obama the "Uncommitted" votes that would rightfully be his.
This would put him back in the lead in the popular vote.

At this point she is merely pulling a "Huckabee" and hanging on for a "miracle".
Which, even people of faith know wont happen.

The only conceivable path to the nomination for her is for the superdelegates to foolishly decide to defy all logic and wisdom by essentially voting for her against the collective will of the people.
Which, of course, will piss off scores of voters and lead to a guaranteed loss in November at best.

Barack Obama is now the presumptive democratic presidential nominee for 2008.

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